THOMAS DRECHSEL

Working Papers

The Investment Channel of Monetary Policy: Disentangling Firm Heterogeneity

with Daniel Lewis, Davide Melcangi, Laura Pilossoph

Paper

The Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Regulation: New Evidence from a High-Frequency Approach

with Ko Miura

Paper | Slides | Bank regulation news shock series (xlsx)

Mentioned in the Hutchins Roundup by Brookings

Inside Central Bankers’ Calendars: How Do Fed Chairs Allocate Their Time?

with Dali Tsakadze

Paper | Data from Fed Chair calendars (xlsx)

Media coverage: Financial Times | New York Times | Reuters | Associated Press

Do Judges Move Markets? Ideological Shifts in the Supreme Court and Macroeconomic Expectations

with Naixin Zhang

Paper

How Should Central Banks Respond to Commodity Price Shocks? Optimal Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks for Commodity-Exposed Economies

with Michael McLeay, Silvana Tenreyro, Enrico Turri - Revise and resubmit at the Journal of International Economics

Paper

Political Pressure on the Fed

Accepted for publication at the Review of Economic Studies

Paper | NBER wp version | Slides | Data on President-Fed interactions and estimated political pressure shocks (xlsx)

Non-technical pieces: VoxEU column | ProMarket.org column | Econofact.org column

Selected media coverage: Financial Times Alphaville | Financial Times Monetary Policy Radar | The Economist | Bloomberg TV | CNBC Video | Politico | AP | Reuters | Frankfurter Allgemeine | Handelsblatt

Podcasts: Macro Musings | Macro Hive | Ones and Tooze | Beyond the Obvious

Income Inequality and Job Creation

with Sebastian Doerr and Donggyu Lee - Accepted for publication at the Review of Economic Studies

Paper | Slides | NY Fed Liberty Street Economics Blog | VoxEU column | EFIP Policy Brief | SUERF Policy Brief

Completed Papers

Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach

with Boragan Aruoba - Forthcoming American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Paper | Slides | Fed sentiments, monetary policy shocks, Greenbook forecast errors, FOMC composition (xlsx) | Full replication kit in R/Matlab (dropbox link) | VoxEU column

The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices

with Boragan Aruoba - Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 148, November 2024.

Published paper | Slides | Comment by Jonathan Wright | PCE subcategory data (zip file) | Matlab code for aggregation of local projection estimates via SUR (zip file) | VoxEU column

Macroprudential Policy with Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints

with Seho Kim - Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 147, October 2024.

Published paper | Slides

The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom

with Ben Broadbent, Federico Di Pace, Richard Harrison and Silvana Tenreyro - Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 91 (4), July 2024.

Published paper | Latest working paper | Data on UK tradable & nontradable sectors (xls) | Full replication kit | VoxEU column | Video explainer (Faculti.net) | Financial Times Mention | Repec Blog | UK in a Changing Europe Blog

Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails

with Juan Antolin-Diaz and Ivan Petrella - Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 238 (2), January 2024.

The methodology we develop in this paper is used by the New York Fed in their nowcasting model: see this note and this blog post

Published paper | Latest working paper | Superseded earlier version (CEPR working paper) | Virtual presentation of earlier version (Youtube)

Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 15 (2), April 2023, pp. 1-34. Lead Article and AEJ:Macro Best Paper Award.

Published paper | Latest working paper | Online appendix | Replication kit (dropbox link)

Agnostic Structural Disturbances (ASDs): Detecting and Reducing Misspecification in Empirical Macroeconomic Models

With Wouter Den Haan - Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 117, January 2021.

Published paper | Longer working paper version | Simple explainer about misspecification in macroeconomics | VoxEU column

Monetary Policy for Commodity Booms and Busts

With Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro - Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2019.

Paper | Discussion by Wei Xiong (Princeton) | VoxEU column | Bloomberg coverage

Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies

With Silvana Tenreyro - Journal of International Economics, Vol. 112, May 2018.

Published paper | Replication files (zip) | VoxEU column

Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth

With Juan Antolin-Diaz and Ivan Petrella - Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 99(2), May 2017.

Published paper | Financial Times coverage | The Telegraph coverage | growthecon blog coverage (Dietz Vollrath) | longandvariable blog coverage (Tony Yates) | VoxEU column

Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?

With Itamar Drechsler, David Marques Ibanez and Philipp Schnabl - Journal of Finance, Vol. 71(5), October 2016. Lead Article.

Published paper

Other papers and policy notes

Are Standard Macro and Credit Policies Enough to Deal with the Economic Fallout from a Global Pandemic? A Proposal for a Negative SME Tax

With Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan - This is a policy note on supporting small businesses during the Covid-19 pandemic, which we wrote in March 2020

Note | VoxEU column | EFIP Policy Brief | SUERF Policy Brief

The GroKo Effect: Does the Popularity of CDU/CSU and SPD Suffer from Grand Coalitions?

This is a mini paper about German politics which I wrote for fun in 2018 as a grad student

Paper draft | Data on German federal and state government coalitions